Released 12/9/24
The new Management Outcomes layer in the right-side panel of the platform helps users analyze the impact of their projects on wildfire hazard by visualizing the estimated wildfire hazard on the landscape if management action is taken versus if no action is taken.
To calculate wildfire hazard, Vibrant Planet evaluates burn probability and fire intensity together. These calculations are powered by Pyrologix, a Vibrant Planet Company. Areas with the highest hazard generally contain the greatest combination of burn probability and fire intensity. You can learn more about how wildfire hazard is calculated on your landscape here.
After creating a scenario in the platform, you are now able to select and view the Wildfire Hazard, 10 Year Burn Probability, and Characteristic Flame Length using the following options:
- No Action: Displays the estimated wildfire hazard if no management action is taken. Selecting No Action provides the same results that were previously provided by Hazard Departure.
- Post Action: Estimates the wildfire hazard if the scenario projects are implemented.
- Change: Displays the percent change between No Action and Post Action wildfire hazard.
Management outcome options:
- Total Wildfire Hazard (intensity x probability) is calculated using wildfire intensity and probability derived from stochastic fire simulations. The model provides estimates for a time period beginning 10 years from now and continuing for a decade. Post Action Wildfire Hazard displays expected wildfire hazard, assuming the management plans described in the scenario are carried out five years from now. Change displays the percent change between No Action and Post Action Wildfire Hazard.
- Estimated 10 Year Burn Probability is the probability that a specific location will experience a wildland fire. The model provides estimates for a time period beginning 10 years from now and continuing for a decade, generated with the large-wildfire simulation system, FSim. Post Action Burn Probability displays expected adjusted burn probability, assuming the management plans in the scenario are carried out five years from now. Change displays the percent change between No Action and Post Action Burn Probability.
- Characteristic Flame Length represents the mean weighted flame length (FL) within the management unit. FL is calculated using heading-only fire behavior and is weighted according to weather-type probability, incorporating both temporal frequencies and the influence of high-spread conditions. The FL model is based on conditions 10 years from now. Post Action Characteristic Flame Length is calculated using the model for a post-management fuelscape. Change displays the percent change between No Action and Post Action Characteristic Flame Length.
Visualization Changes:
Management outcome metrics are based on log scales that are standardized across the west to make it easier to view and interpret data on the landscape. As part of this update, Vibrant Planet has changed the symbology (map coloring scheme) for several data layers including:
- Wildfire Hazard: logarithmic, standardized
- 10 Year Burn Probability: constant ranges
- Characteristic Flame Length: logarithmic, standardized
- Structure Exposure Score: logarithmic, standardized
Tooltips in the platform provide detailed definitions of calculations and the log scale buckets for each metric in the Management Outcomes feature.
Feature Availability:
Currently available to:
- CAL FIRE AEU
- Marin County
- SIL - WCS Landscape
- PSICC - WCS Landscape
- Enchanted Circle - WCS Landscape
- Trinity
- Southern Oregon Forest Restoration Collaborative
Coming soon to:
- Plumas National Forest - WCS Landscape
- Tahoe National Forest
- SoCal - WCS Landscape
- Klamath - WCS Landscape
- Truckee Fire
- Placer County